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The 50 constituencies to watch at the 2015 General Election

We do know when the next general election will be – Thursday 7 May 2015 – but few would want to predict its outcome. In 2010 neither Labour nor the Tories did well enough to form a government on their own and Labour lost very badly. The Lib Dems became the junior partner in a coalition government. In Scotland the SNP continued to gain strength, culminating in an independence referendum which, though lost, is nevertheless changing the power balance of the UK. UKIP started as a party which mainly threatened the Conservatives, but its reach has widened. In the European elections it won more seats than any other party. It now has two Westminster MPs, both having defected from the Conservatives and forced by-elections. Meanwhile the Greens are gaining members at a higher rate than the established parties. In fact, next year’s general election might best be understood as one of 650 odd by-elections. Local circumstances and individual candidates will matter more than ever. This guide looks at the 50 most interesting marginal seats – who are the runners and riders and what factors may affect the outcome. I hope readers will find it useful – not just now, but also on election night.

GISELA STUART MP EDITOR



Data and analysis supplied by Dods People, Dods Polling and The House magazine

The House magazine would like to thank the following advertisers for making the production of this guide possible

Amber Valley

This Derbyshire constituency is an area where the traditional mining, iron founding and textile industries have declined and the economy is slowly becoming more diverse. Amber Valley is one of the most populated non-city districts in the East Midlands and the most populated district in Derbyshire apart from the city of Derby. The constituency’s three main towns are all priorities for regeneration. Having lost the seat in 2010 to the Conservatives by only 536 votes, Labour will be fighting hard to retake Amber Valley in 2015.

 

 

 

 

Argyll and Bute

Argyll and Bute is vast, remote and beautiful. It comprises 26 inhabited islands off the west coast of Scotland, including Colonsay, Iona, Islay, Jura, Mull, Tiree and Bute, as well as a great swath of the mainland from the Kintyre Peninsula to the moors of Argyll in the remote north. With the declining fortunes of the Lib Dems and the rise of the SNP in the area, Alan Reid will have to work hard to keep his seat in 2015. Due to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the SNP has yet to select candidates for many Westminster seats at the 2015 general election – including Argyll and Bute.

 

 

Ayrshire North and Arran

North Ayrshire and Arran stretches along a long strip of east coast mainland and includes, just across the Firth of Clyde, the Isle of Arran. Largs, Fairlie and West Kilbride – wealthy commuting areas to the north – contrast with the southern industrial belt which runs from Ardrossan to Kilwinning. Labour’s dominance is likely to be challenged by the SNP in 2015 as disaffected voters turn to the nationalists.

 

 

Birmingham Yardley

Birmingham Yardley represented a valuable win for the Lib Dems in the 2005 general election, but remains closely contested. It is now made up of four wards: Acocks Green, South Yardley, Stechford and Yardley North and Sheldon. Unusually for the West Midlands, the contest here is traditionally between the Lib Dems and Labour. With Lib Dem support falling nationally, this is exactly the sort of seat Labour needs to win. But Birmingham city councillor and victims’ champion Jess Phillips may find the experienced campaigner and maverick John Hemming a doughty opponent.

 

 

Bradford East

Recreated in 2010, this seat reshapes much of the old Bradford North constituency, snaking down the east of the city along the border with Pudsey. A large percentage of the population comes from ethnic minorities, mostly Asian. The constituency includes the wards of Bolton and Undercliffe, Bowling and Barkerend, Bradford Moor, Eccleshill, Idle and Thackley, and Little Horton. The Lib Dems won the seat from Labour in 2010 after a hard-fought battle, but with such a small margin of victory it could very well return to Labour again.

 

 

Brent Central 

Created in 2010, this seat takes in nine wards from across the London Borough of Brent. It stretches from Dollis Hill in the north to Queen’s Park in the south. A traditionally strong Labour area, Sarah Teather’s victory over Labour candidate Dawn Butler in 2010 was partly buoyed by local opposition to the Iraq War. Following Teather’s decision to stand down, the new Lib Dem PPC for Brent Central, Ibrahim Taguri, is facing a stiff challenge from Butler, who served as MP for the abolished constituency of Brent South from 2005 until 2010.

 

 

Bristol West

In many ways, Bristol West might be considered the most diverse of the city’s constituencies, with its unusual mix of students, ethnic minorities and wealthy professionals. Its mixed character may be linked to its marginality. Following a strong performance in the local elections, the Green Party are now serious contenders for this seat, making Bristol West a three-way marginal and the result even harder to predict.

 

 

Broxtowe

Traditionally a safe Conservative seat covering the western fringes of the west and north west of Nottingham, Broxtowe has changed significantly, politically and socially, since the early 1990s. Unlike many surrounding seats in Nottinghamshire and East Derbyshire, the constituency is largely middle class, particularly in the suburban towns of Beeston and Stapleford. Outspoken Conservative MP Anna Soubry faces a robust challenge from the seat’s former MP of 13 years, Nick Palmer.

 

 

Burnley

Burnley is a major Lancashire town situated just east of Blackburn. The constituency also includes some of the surrounding Pennine Moors. Formerly a safe Labour seat, the Liberal Democrats secured victory in 2010. In the past Burnley has received national press coverage for flirting with the BNP, but the far-right party’s vote has since collapsed. Up until recently, the race has been seen primarily as being between the Lib Dems and Labour – but will UKIP benefit from the support of disaffected voters in the town?

 

 

Cardiff Central

Cardiff Central comprises the city centre and encompasses the castle, Cardiff University, the City Hall, the Law Courts, National Museum, Cardiff Royal Infirmary and a large shopping area. The seat also includes the Millennium Stadium, the magnificent home of Welsh rugby. Jenny Willott has held the seat for the Lib Dems since 2005, but is facing a serious challenge from Labour in the form of trade union solicitor Jo Stevens.

 

 

 

 

Cardiff North

Cardiff is fast becoming one of Europe’s finest maritime cities and the rapid development is giving the city a new cosmopolitan feel. The northern division has become a major Tory/Labour battleground. Following incumbent MP Jonathan Evans’ decision to stand down, new Conservative PPC Craig Williams will have a hard job fighting off Labour’s Mari Williams in this ultra-marginal seat.

 

 

Carlisle

Carlisle is a predominantly urban constituency comprising the city itself, as well as outlying rural towns. Industry within the seat is focused on food manufacturing, with agriculture playing a role in the lives of many inhabitants. Tourists are also attracted by the city’s Roman heritage. John Stevenson faces a tough fight against Labour’s Lee Sherriff. This marginal seat is exactly the kind of constituency both the Conservative and Labour parties need to capture in order to win the next general election.

 

 

Chippenham

Chippenham was newly created in 2010 by the Boundary Commission out of parts of the Devizes, North Wiltshire and Westbury constituencies. The seat is based around the town of Chippenham, the largest town in rural North Wiltshire, lying between the Marlborough Downs to the east, the Cotswolds to the north and west and Salisbury Plain to the south. The three seats from which this constituency was formed in 2010 were all solid Tory territory, and Conservative Michelle Donelan is seen as a serious contender to take the seat from Duncan Hames.

 

 

Dewsbury

This largely urban West Yorkshire seat to the south of Leeds has had a marginal past. Major boundary changes helped make the seat slightly more winnable for the Conservatives and they returned a majority of 1,526 at the 2010 general election. A rise in UKIP’s fortunes locally could potentially split the Conservative vote – and even deliver a possible victory to Labour’s Paula Sherriff.

 

 

Dorset Mid and Poole North

On the border between town and country, this constituency stretches from the suburban residential areas of North Poole to smaller rural communities. A new creation for 1997, Mid Dorset and North Poole was narrowly held by the Conservatives in its inaugural year but Annette Brooke won the seat in 2005, turning in one of the most impressive Lib Dem performances in the south-west that year. However, Brooke could only manage a majority of 269 in 2010 and, after her decision not to contest the seat in 2015, this is a seat the Tories will be looking to take.

 

 

Dundee West

Dundee was once known for ‘jute, jam and journalism’: now the jute mills are long closed and Dundee is marketed as the ‘city of discovery’ in an attempt to increase tourism. The seat remains a hive of industry, with food processing and publishing still important and new hi-tech firms establishing themselves. Residents are still by and large staunchly working class, but there are some more middle-class areas around Dundee Law. The city centre, both universities and the airport are also in this seat. The ascendant SNP currently holds the near-analogue Holyrood seat of Dundee City West.

 

 

 

 

 

Edinburgh East

Until now seen as a safe Labour seat, Edinburgh East is situated in the heart of Scotland’s capital and includes landmarks such as Edinburgh Castle, Arthur’s Seat, St Giles’ Cathedral, the Palace of Holyroodhouse, the Princes Street gardens, and Edinburgh University. The constituency also encompasses deprived areas such as the Craigmillar estate. Although the city of Edinburgh voted ‘no’ to independence overall, Edinburgh East bucked the trend, recording the highest ‘yes’ vote in the capital at 47% – leaving the seat looking potentially vulnerable to an SNP swing.

 

 

Falkirk

Set in Scotland’s old industrial heartland, this constituency was created in 2005. On paper Labour enjoys a healthy majority, but a series of high-profile scandals could play in the SNP’s favour. Not only did incumbent Eric Joyce resign the Labour whip following his arrest for drunk and disorderly behaviour in a Commons bar, but the subsequent selection process for a new Labour PPC was also long and controversial and the Unite union was accused of ‘hijacking’ the exercise. Karen Whitefield, the former Labour MSP for Airdrie and Shotts, may have a daunting fight ahead of her.

 

 

Gordon

Set in the rural hinterland around the city of Aberdeen, this seat has seen a huge growth in population caused by the oil boom. Forestry, agriculture and food processing including whisky distilleries are among the most important industries. Other industries include paper at Inverurie and engineering supplies for the oil and gas industries. Following the popular Malcolm Bruce’s decision to stand down, Christine Jardine’s campaign to keep the seat for the Lib Dems has been dealt a heavy blow by political leviathan Alex Salmond’s announcement that he is to run for the very seat that his own Holyrood constituency overlaps.

 

 

Great Grimsby

Situated in North East Lincolnshire, the once-famous fishing port of Great Grimsby has been a solidly Labour seat since 1945, remaining loyal even in bad times. However, Labour’s local base is shrinking. Local election results have not been kind to the party, with UKIP making a series of local election breakthroughs, both in Grimsby and neighbouring areas. Longstanding incumbent Austin Mitchell has also seen his majority fall from a peak of 16,000 in 1997 to 714 by 2010. With the local economy struggling, Mitchell’s decision to stand down at the next election may have blown the race wide open.

 

 

Hendon

This ethnically and economically diverse marginal north London seat was held by Labour’s Andrew Dismore from 1997 until his narrow defeat in 2010 to the Conservatives. During a negatively waged election campaign, Matthew Offord benefited from voters’ concerns over the economy and also what appeared to be voter mobilisation in communities opposed to the Iraq war. Andrew Dismore, who later said he would have the number 106 “engraved on my heart until I die”, described the campaign as the “filthiest I’ve ever been involved in”. Could a bitter rematch in 2015 result in Dismore recapturing his old seat?

 

 

Hornsey and Wood Green

Hornsey and Wood Green constituency is in the London Borough of Haringey and covers the western area of the borough including Muswell Hill and the steep hills of Wood Green. It is a reasonably affluent north London seat with some diverse areas. Although Featherstone has a reasonable majority, the Lib Dems lost 14 out of 23 seats on Haringey Council in May’s local elections. If such a result was replicated at the 2015 general election, the former leader of Islington Council, Catherine West, could be the victor.

 

 

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

A vast constituency covering over 750,000 hectares, this is one of the largest in the UK. The city of Inverness has been regenerated in the last three decades and is now a self-confident and vibrant capital of the Gàidhealtachd, the Gaelic-speaking heartland. The seat was held by Labour until 2005, but constituents now have a Nationalist MSP and a Lib Dem MP. As Treasury Chief Secretary in the Coalition Government, could Danny Alexander’s perceived closeness to the Tories, combined with his role in unpopular government cuts, see him become one of the biggest scalps taken by the SNP at the 2015 general election?

 

 

Lancaster and Fleetwood

This Lancashire constituency was created in the 2010 boundary changes. It combines the historic town of Lancaster with the coastal town of Fleetwood. As an ultramarginal Conservative/Labour seat, the fight for Lancaster and Fleetwood promises to be fierce, as both parties will view winning this seat as essential to their prospects of forming a government after the 2015 general election. However, with rising support for UKIP eating into their core votes, the result is going to be hard to predict.

 

 

Lincoln

An ancient cathedral city that is more industrial and working class than outsiders might imagine. UKIP may have polled only 2.2% of the vote in 2010, but anti-immigration sentiment – combined with growing local resentment that Lincoln has become remote from the concerns of a ‘Westminster elite’ – could see the party dramatically boost its vote share in 2015.

 

 

Linlithgow and Falkirk East

Situated in the central industrial belt, the constituency spreads from Grangemouth and Bo’ness down the south bank of the Forth to the ancient burgh of Linlithgow, stopping just short of Queensferry. The light manufacturing capital of Scotland, it reaches about 15km inland to include working-class Bathgate and Armadale in the south, and the former coal-mining area of Polkemmet. Will the SNP’s rising popularity be enough to overturn Michael Connarty’s large majority and take this traditionally safe Labour seat?

 

 

Livingston

Livingston stretches from the western outskirts of Edinburgh to the Pentland Hills in the south, up to a small area of ex-mining towns just north of the M8. The distinguished former foreign secretary Robin Cook enjoyed a commanding lead over the SNP at Westminster elections until his untimely death in August 2005. His successor, Jim Devine, was later jailed for fraudulent expenses. Held by party veteran Graeme Morrice since 2010, Livingston was seen until very recently as a safe Labour seat – but could rising SNP fortunes end Labour’s dominance and spell success for the nationalists in 2015?

 

 

Llanelli

Llanelli is the largest town in Carmarthenshire, situated in the industrial south-east of the county; the constituency also includes the towns of Burry Port and Kidwelly. Historically a safe Labour constituency at elections to Westminster, it has become an important Welsh Assembly seat for Plaid Cymru after their victories in 1999 and 2007. Now likely to be a prime Westminster target seat for PC, can the Welsh nationalists translate disaffection with Labour into a significantly larger vote share in 2015?

 

 

Manchester Withington

This mainly residential seat to the south of Manchester city centre includes the areas of Didsbury, Withington and Chorlton. These desirable neighbourhoods have high numbers of students and young professionals. After first deserting the Tories during the Thatcher years, a shock win for the Lib Dems in 2005 and their re-election in 2010 has turned this once very safe Labour seat into marginal territory. John Leech may have voted against tuition fees, but with so many student voters living in the constituency can Labour capitalise on anti-Lib Dem sentiment and retake this seat in 2015?

 

 

Montgomeryshire

Montgomeryshire is a rural constituency with an elderly population centred on Newtown. Lembit Öpik was a surprise loser on election night when the Tories’ Glyn Davies captured the seat with a 13.2% swing in 2010. Will the political weather ensure this seat remains blue – or can local councillor and social worker Jane Dodds recapture the seat for the Lib Dems?

 

 

Morecambe and Lunesdale

This seat contains the rural northern parts of Lancashire that border Cumbria with wards such as Carnforth, and swings round to the west to the seaside resort of Morecambe. Not quite as glamorous as its near neighbour Blackpool, its two piers have both disappeared in recent years – one in a fire, the other in a storm. It switched to the Tories in 2010. As an ultra-marginal seat, the battle for Morecambe and Lunesdale promises to be fierce in 2015, with both the Conservatives and Labour needing to win seats such as this if they are to be returned to government.

 

 

Norwich South

Norwich South takes in the majority of the city’s historical features including its Norman castle and cathedral. Labour support here has dwindled over recent elections, with the Liberal Democrats winning the seat by a small margin in 2010, defeating former Cabinet Minister Charles Clarke. However, the Lib Dems’ plummeting constituency poll ratings suggest this seat may become Labour’s once again.

 

 

Ochil and South Perthshire

Rural hamlets like Auchterarder, Comrie and Crieff sparsely dot the mountainous northern region of this beautiful rural constituency, whose more populous parts lie in south-east Clackmannanshire, centred on Alloa and Alva. Although the seat includes the great rural hinterland of the old Perth division, the majority of its electors are drawn from the old Labour seat of Ochil. A key SNP target, the Scottish nationalists will find it hard to bag bigger fish if they can’t capture this seat in 2015.

 

 

Redcar

A coastal constituency, Redcar includes the eponymous seaside resort. Sandwiched between Middlesbrough to the south and Hartlepool and Stockton to the north, most of the constituency is urban and heavily industrialised. The Lib Dems took the seat from Labour with their biggest swing of 2010 – an impressive 22%. But with the Lib Dems suffering in the polls and popular incumbent MP Ian Swales standing down, can local councillor Josh Mason do enough to prevent this seat being retaken by Labour?

 

 

Rotherham

The old coal and steel town of Rotherham, now bearing the scars of the decline of both its major industries, has been represented by all three main parties but only Labour has won here since 1933 – and, since WWII, usually overwhelmingly. Sarah Champion held the seat for Labour at the 2012 by-election, caused by Denis MacShane’s resignation following an expenses scandal, but saw the party’s majority halved to 5,318. UKIP came second, almost quadrupling its vote share since 2010 making Rotherham one of its top target seats in the north. Leading the charge is the UKIP MEP, Jane Collins.

 

 

Sherwood

Sherwood covers the central part of Nottinghamshire and contains the former mining communities of Hucknall, Ravenshead, Ollerton and Calverton. Previously held by Paddy Tipping, Labour’s comfortable reign ended when Tipping stood down after 18 years in 2010. The seat was won by Mark Spencer for the Conservatives with a majority of 214. Sherwood is now number five on Labour’s target list for 2015.

 

 

Solihull

Solihull, on the south eastern fringes of Birmingham, comprises eight wards: Elmdon, Lyndon, Olton, St Alphege, Shirley East, Shirley South, Shirley West and Silhill. It is middle class, suburban, owner-occupied and white. The seat had been Conservative since its creation in 1945 but fell to the Lib Dems in a surprise victory in 2005 and again, with a tiny majority, in 2010. Lib Dem incumbent Lorely Burt will have a fight on her hands if she is to hold on to her seat against the resurgent Tories, led by journalist Julian Knight.

 

 

Somerton and Frome

Somerton and Frome is one of the largest rural constituencies in England, covering almost 900 square miles. It borders Wiltshire to the east, Bath and North East Somerset to the north and Dorset to the south. With David Heath standing down the Lib Dem charge is being led by old hand David Rendel, the former MP for Newbury. The Lib Dems will be only too aware that despite four successive victories here, their grip on power remains very fragile, with the Tories now desperate to win this seat.

 

 

St Austell and Newquay

The new seat of St Austell and Newquay stretches from the south east to the north coast of Cornwall and takes in a huge rural heartland in between the big touristic towns of St Austell and Newquay. Though held by the Lib Dems for many years now, this seat is a key target for the Conservatives.

 

 

St Ives

The most south westerly constituency in the country stretches from Land’s End northwards to Godrevy Head, north of the seaside town from which it takes its name. The seat also includes the Isles of Scilly. But the largest town is Penzance, the commercial centre of West Cornwall. Labour support has stagnated for many years, but unless Andrew George benefits from some Labour tactical voting, this seat may well turn blue. A rising UKIP and Cornish nationalist vote makes the result even more difficult to predict.

 

 

Stirling

Centred on the ancient Scottish capital of the same name, this seat also includes historic Bannockburn and Stirling Bridge, as well as the vast Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park. Until now a reasonably safe Labour seat at Westminster, it is a three-way marginal at Holyrood since the SNP leapfrogged Labour and the Conservatives to win the seat in 2007. With Anne McGuire standing down, Labour PPC Johanna Boyd faces a tough fight to prevent the SNP taking this seat in a Bannockburn-style rout.

 

 

Stockton South

The congenial sibling of the Stockton North seat contains the town centre and also houses many commuters to Middlesbrough. With lower unemployment and a workforce less centred upon manual labour, it is little surprise that Stockton South has flirted with the Conservatives, albeit by narrow margins. Louise Baldock may well take this seat back for Labour.

 

 

Stroud

Stroud lies to the south of Gloucester, between the two larger rural Gloucestershire constituencies of the Cotswolds and Forest of Dean. More industrialised than the neighbouring constituency of the Cotswolds, the Conservative hold has been much more tenuous in Stroud, a seat with a history of nonconformist political activity. A constituency with a history of wavering between Labour and the Tories, the former Labour MP for Stroud, David Drew, may well find himself returned to Westminster once again.

 

 

Sutton and Cheam

The areas of Sutton and Cheam are on the south-west boundary of Greater London. Suburban, primarily residential areas, the latter is rather more affluent than its neighbour. Although a Lib Dem seat since 1997, Paul Scully is fighting hard to retake the constituency for the Tories. With Emily Brothers – who came out in December as the first transgender PPC selected by a major political party – representing Labour, and local ‘Keep St Helier Hospital’ campaigner Dave Ash making his challenge in the seat of a former health minister, Sutton and Cheam looks set to be a fascinating battleground.

 

 

Thanet South

Thanet South sits in the north east corner of Kent. It includes the coastal resorts of Broadstairs and Ramsgate plus the port of Sandwich. The sitting MP, Laura Sandys, was dealt a body blow in 2011 when Pfizer announced it was to close its Sandwich plant with the loss of 6,000 jobs. UKIP suggested vocal pro-European Sandys’ decision to stand down in 2015 was influenced by the fear that she would lose her seat to the party. Faced with a challenge by its popular leader Nigel Farage, the local Conservative Association chose a UKIP defector, Craig Mackinlay, to replace her.

 

 

Thurrock

Thurrock borders Greater London, covers 18 miles of the north bank of the Thames and includes the towns of Grays, Tilbury and Purfleet. An important port area, it is home to Tilbury docks and oil refineries and forms a major part of the Thames Gateway regeneration area. Traditionally a two-way contest between the Tories and Labour, this constituency has now become a three-way marginal, with UKIP polling well. Holding the seat with a tiny majority, the Tories face challenges from Ed Miliband’s former Spad, Polly Billington and UKIP MEP Tim Aker.

 

 

Warrington South

Held by the Conservatives for just shy of a decade following its creation in 1983, Labour’s win here in 1992 was followed by three more at successive general elections before David Mowat triumphed for the Tories in 2010. There is some industry in the seat, mainly chemical and service industries, but it generally consists of quiet residential areas. A key 2015 battleground for both Labour and the Conservatives, the result here may say a lot about each of the parties’ prospects nationwide.

 

 

Warwickshire North

North Warwickshire lies to the east of Birmingham and north of Coventry. It comprises a collection of post-industrial villages and the town of Bedworth. Historically it had a large coal-mining industry, but this has almost petered out. The district is relatively remote from the rest of Warwickshire, as the county is almost split in two by the West Midlands. With sitting MP Dan Byles standing down, can the Tories’ new candidate Craig Tracey do enough to prevent former government minister Mike O’Brien taking back the old seat he lost in 2010?

 

 

Waveney

The most easterly seat in Britain, Waveney is situated in the north east corner of Suffolk. The constituency contains the declining coastal town of Lowestoft and the market towns of Beccles and Bungay. Currently held with a tiny majority by Peter Aldous, Labour’s Bob Blizzard will be battling hard to retake the seat he previously held for 13 years. But with UKIP’s successful showing in the 2013 local elections, could Simon Tobin produce an electoral upset of his own in 2015?

 

 

Wells

The Somerset city of Wells – after which the constituency is named – is England’s smallest city, with a population of only 10,000. The constituency also lays claim to Glastonbury, and the burial site of King Arthur and Guinevere said to be in the grounds of the ruined Glastonbury Abbey. Tessa Munt ended the 30-year reign of the previous Conservative MP, David Heathcoat-Amory, in 2010. With a tiny majority of 800, can the Lib Dems do enough to prevent new Conservative candidate James Heappey from turning the seat blue again?

 

 

The 50 constituencies to watch at the 2015 General Election

We do know when the next general election will be – Thursday 7 May 2015 – but few would want to predict its outcome. In 2010 neither Labour nor the Tories did well enough to form a government on their own and Labour lost very badly. The Lib Dems became the junior partner in a coalition government. In Scotland the SNP continued to gain strength, culminating in an independence referendum which, though lost, is nevertheless changing the power balance of the UK. UKIP started as a party which mainly threatened the Conservatives, but its reach has widened. In the European elections it won more seats than any other party. It now has two Westminster MPs, both having defected from the Conservatives and forced by-elections. Meanwhile the Greens are gaining members at a higher rate than the established parties. In fact, next year’s general election might best be understood as one of 650 odd by-elections. Local circumstances and individual candidates will matter more than ever. This guide looks at the 50 most interesting marginal seats – who are the runners and riders and what factors may affect the outcome. I hope readers will find it useful – not just now, but also on election night.

GISELA STUART MP EDITOR



Data and analysis supplied by Dods People, Dods Polling and The House magazine

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Amber Valley

This Derbyshire constituency is an area where the traditional mining, iron founding and textile industries have declined and the economy is slowly becoming more diverse. Amber Valley is one of the most populated non-city districts in the East Midlands and the most populated district in Derbyshire apart from the city of Derby. The constituency’s three main towns are all priorities for regeneration. Having lost the seat in 2010 to the Conservatives by only 536 votes, Labour will be fighting hard to retake Amber Valley in 2015.

 

 

 

 

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Argyll and Bute

Argyll and Bute is vast, remote and beautiful. It comprises 26 inhabited islands off the west coast of Scotland, including Colonsay, Iona, Islay, Jura, Mull, Tiree and Bute, as well as a great swath of the mainland from the Kintyre Peninsula to the moors of Argyll in the remote north. With the declining fortunes of the Lib Dems and the rise of the SNP in the area, Alan Reid will have to work hard to keep his seat in 2015. Due to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the SNP has yet to select candidates for many Westminster seats at the 2015 general election – including Argyll and Bute.

 

 

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Ayrshire North and Arran

North Ayrshire and Arran stretches along a long strip of east coast mainland and includes, just across the Firth of Clyde, the Isle of Arran. Largs, Fairlie and West Kilbride – wealthy commuting areas to the north – contrast with the southern industrial belt which runs from Ardrossan to Kilwinning. Labour’s dominance is likely to be challenged by the SNP in 2015 as disaffected voters turn to the nationalists.

 

 

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Birmingham Yardley

Birmingham Yardley represented a valuable win for the Lib Dems in the 2005 general election, but remains closely contested. It is now made up of four wards: Acocks Green, South Yardley, Stechford and Yardley North and Sheldon. Unusually for the West Midlands, the contest here is traditionally between the Lib Dems and Labour. With Lib Dem support falling nationally, this is exactly the sort of seat Labour needs to win. But Birmingham city councillor and victims’ champion Jess Phillips may find the experienced campaigner and maverick John Hemming a doughty opponent.

 

 

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Bradford East

Recreated in 2010, this seat reshapes much of the old Bradford North constituency, snaking down the east of the city along the border with Pudsey. A large percentage of the population comes from ethnic minorities, mostly Asian. The constituency includes the wards of Bolton and Undercliffe, Bowling and Barkerend, Bradford Moor, Eccleshill, Idle and Thackley, and Little Horton. The Lib Dems won the seat from Labour in 2010 after a hard-fought battle, but with such a small margin of victory it could very well return to Labour again.

 

 

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Brent Central 

Created in 2010, this seat takes in nine wards from across the London Borough of Brent. It stretches from Dollis Hill in the north to Queen’s Park in the south. A traditionally strong Labour area, Sarah Teather’s victory over Labour candidate Dawn Butler in 2010 was partly buoyed by local opposition to the Iraq War. Following Teather’s decision to stand down, the new Lib Dem PPC for Brent Central, Ibrahim Taguri, is facing a stiff challenge from Butler, who served as MP for the abolished constituency of Brent South from 2005 until 2010.

 

 

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Bristol West

In many ways, Bristol West might be considered the most diverse of the city’s constituencies, with its unusual mix of students, ethnic minorities and wealthy professionals. Its mixed character may be linked to its marginality. Following a strong performance in the local elections, the Green Party are now serious contenders for this seat, making Bristol West a three-way marginal and the result even harder to predict.

 

 

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Broxtowe

Traditionally a safe Conservative seat covering the western fringes of the west and north west of Nottingham, Broxtowe has changed significantly, politically and socially, since the early 1990s. Unlike many surrounding seats in Nottinghamshire and East Derbyshire, the constituency is largely middle class, particularly in the suburban towns of Beeston and Stapleford. Outspoken Conservative MP Anna Soubry faces a robust challenge from the seat’s former MP of 13 years, Nick Palmer.

 

 

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Burnley

Burnley is a major Lancashire town situated just east of Blackburn. The constituency also includes some of the surrounding Pennine Moors. Formerly a safe Labour seat, the Liberal Democrats secured victory in 2010. In the past Burnley has received national press coverage for flirting with the BNP, but the far-right party’s vote has since collapsed. Up until recently, the race has been seen primarily as being between the Lib Dems and Labour – but will UKIP benefit from the support of disaffected voters in the town?

 

 

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Cardiff Central

Cardiff Central comprises the city centre and encompasses the castle, Cardiff University, the City Hall, the Law Courts, National Museum, Cardiff Royal Infirmary and a large shopping area. The seat also includes the Millennium Stadium, the magnificent home of Welsh rugby. Jenny Willott has held the seat for the Lib Dems since 2005, but is facing a serious challenge from Labour in the form of trade union solicitor Jo Stevens.

 

 

 

 

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Cardiff North

Cardiff is fast becoming one of Europe’s finest maritime cities and the rapid development is giving the city a new cosmopolitan feel. The northern division has become a major Tory/Labour battleground. Following incumbent MP Jonathan Evans’ decision to stand down, new Conservative PPC Craig Williams will have a hard job fighting off Labour’s Mari Williams in this ultra-marginal seat.

 

 

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Carlisle

Carlisle is a predominantly urban constituency comprising the city itself, as well as outlying rural towns. Industry within the seat is focused on food manufacturing, with agriculture playing a role in the lives of many inhabitants. Tourists are also attracted by the city’s Roman heritage. John Stevenson faces a tough fight against Labour’s Lee Sherriff. This marginal seat is exactly the kind of constituency both the Conservative and Labour parties need to capture in order to win the next general election.

 

 

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Chippenham

Chippenham was newly created in 2010 by the Boundary Commission out of parts of the Devizes, North Wiltshire and Westbury constituencies. The seat is based around the town of Chippenham, the largest town in rural North Wiltshire, lying between the Marlborough Downs to the east, the Cotswolds to the north and west and Salisbury Plain to the south. The three seats from which this constituency was formed in 2010 were all solid Tory territory, and Conservative Michelle Donelan is seen as a serious contender to take the seat from Duncan Hames.

 

 

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Dewsbury

This largely urban West Yorkshire seat to the south of Leeds has had a marginal past. Major boundary changes helped make the seat slightly more winnable for the Conservatives and they returned a majority of 1,526 at the 2010 general election. A rise in UKIP’s fortunes locally could potentially split the Conservative vote – and even deliver a possible victory to Labour’s Paula Sherriff.

 

 

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Dorset Mid and Poole North

On the border between town and country, this constituency stretches from the suburban residential areas of North Poole to smaller rural communities. A new creation for 1997, Mid Dorset and North Poole was narrowly held by the Conservatives in its inaugural year but Annette Brooke won the seat in 2005, turning in one of the most impressive Lib Dem performances in the south-west that year. However, Brooke could only manage a majority of 269 in 2010 and, after her decision not to contest the seat in 2015, this is a seat the Tories will be looking to take.

 

 

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Dundee West

Dundee was once known for ‘jute, jam and journalism’: now the jute mills are long closed and Dundee is marketed as the ‘city of discovery’ in an attempt to increase tourism. The seat remains a hive of industry, with food processing and publishing still important and new hi-tech firms establishing themselves. Residents are still by and large staunchly working class, but there are some more middle-class areas around Dundee Law. The city centre, both universities and the airport are also in this seat. The ascendant SNP currently holds the near-analogue Holyrood seat of Dundee City West.

 

 

 

 

 

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Edinburgh East

Until now seen as a safe Labour seat, Edinburgh East is situated in the heart of Scotland’s capital and includes landmarks such as Edinburgh Castle, Arthur’s Seat, St Giles’ Cathedral, the Palace of Holyroodhouse, the Princes Street gardens, and Edinburgh University. The constituency also encompasses deprived areas such as the Craigmillar estate. Although the city of Edinburgh voted ‘no’ to independence overall, Edinburgh East bucked the trend, recording the highest ‘yes’ vote in the capital at 47% – leaving the seat looking potentially vulnerable to an SNP swing.

 

 

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Falkirk

Set in Scotland’s old industrial heartland, this constituency was created in 2005. On paper Labour enjoys a healthy majority, but a series of high-profile scandals could play in the SNP’s favour. Not only did incumbent Eric Joyce resign the Labour whip following his arrest for drunk and disorderly behaviour in a Commons bar, but the subsequent selection process for a new Labour PPC was also long and controversial and the Unite union was accused of ‘hijacking’ the exercise. Karen Whitefield, the former Labour MSP for Airdrie and Shotts, may have a daunting fight ahead of her.

 

 

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Gordon

Set in the rural hinterland around the city of Aberdeen, this seat has seen a huge growth in population caused by the oil boom. Forestry, agriculture and food processing including whisky distilleries are among the most important industries. Other industries include paper at Inverurie and engineering supplies for the oil and gas industries. Following the popular Malcolm Bruce’s decision to stand down, Christine Jardine’s campaign to keep the seat for the Lib Dems has been dealt a heavy blow by political leviathan Alex Salmond’s announcement that he is to run for the very seat that his own Holyrood constituency overlaps.

 

 

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Great Grimsby

Situated in North East Lincolnshire, the once-famous fishing port of Great Grimsby has been a solidly Labour seat since 1945, remaining loyal even in bad times. However, Labour’s local base is shrinking. Local election results have not been kind to the party, with UKIP making a series of local election breakthroughs, both in Grimsby and neighbouring areas. Longstanding incumbent Austin Mitchell has also seen his majority fall from a peak of 16,000 in 1997 to 714 by 2010. With the local economy struggling, Mitchell’s decision to stand down at the next election may have blown the race wide open.

 

 

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Hendon

This ethnically and economically diverse marginal north London seat was held by Labour’s Andrew Dismore from 1997 until his narrow defeat in 2010 to the Conservatives. During a negatively waged election campaign, Matthew Offord benefited from voters’ concerns over the economy and also what appeared to be voter mobilisation in communities opposed to the Iraq war. Andrew Dismore, who later said he would have the number 106 “engraved on my heart until I die”, described the campaign as the “filthiest I’ve ever been involved in”. Could a bitter rematch in 2015 result in Dismore recapturing his old seat?

 

 

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Hornsey and Wood Green

Hornsey and Wood Green constituency is in the London Borough of Haringey and covers the western area of the borough including Muswell Hill and the steep hills of Wood Green. It is a reasonably affluent north London seat with some diverse areas. Although Featherstone has a reasonable majority, the Lib Dems lost 14 out of 23 seats on Haringey Council in May’s local elections. If such a result was replicated at the 2015 general election, the former leader of Islington Council, Catherine West, could be the victor.

 

 

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Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

A vast constituency covering over 750,000 hectares, this is one of the largest in the UK. The city of Inverness has been regenerated in the last three decades and is now a self-confident and vibrant capital of the Gàidhealtachd, the Gaelic-speaking heartland. The seat was held by Labour until 2005, but constituents now have a Nationalist MSP and a Lib Dem MP. As Treasury Chief Secretary in the Coalition Government, could Danny Alexander’s perceived closeness to the Tories, combined with his role in unpopular government cuts, see him become one of the biggest scalps taken by the SNP at the 2015 general election?

 

 

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Lancaster and Fleetwood

This Lancashire constituency was created in the 2010 boundary changes. It combines the historic town of Lancaster with the coastal town of Fleetwood. As an ultramarginal Conservative/Labour seat, the fight for Lancaster and Fleetwood promises to be fierce, as both parties will view winning this seat as essential to their prospects of forming a government after the 2015 general election. However, with rising support for UKIP eating into their core votes, the result is going to be hard to predict.

 

 

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Lincoln

An ancient cathedral city that is more industrial and working class than outsiders might imagine. UKIP may have polled only 2.2% of the vote in 2010, but anti-immigration sentiment – combined with growing local resentment that Lincoln has become remote from the concerns of a ‘Westminster elite’ – could see the party dramatically boost its vote share in 2015.

 

 

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Linlithgow and Falkirk East

Situated in the central industrial belt, the constituency spreads from Grangemouth and Bo’ness down the south bank of the Forth to the ancient burgh of Linlithgow, stopping just short of Queensferry. The light manufacturing capital of Scotland, it reaches about 15km inland to include working-class Bathgate and Armadale in the south, and the former coal-mining area of Polkemmet. Will the SNP’s rising popularity be enough to overturn Michael Connarty’s large majority and take this traditionally safe Labour seat?

 

 

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Livingston

Livingston stretches from the western outskirts of Edinburgh to the Pentland Hills in the south, up to a small area of ex-mining towns just north of the M8. The distinguished former foreign secretary Robin Cook enjoyed a commanding lead over the SNP at Westminster elections until his untimely death in August 2005. His successor, Jim Devine, was later jailed for fraudulent expenses. Held by party veteran Graeme Morrice since 2010, Livingston was seen until very recently as a safe Labour seat – but could rising SNP fortunes end Labour’s dominance and spell success for the nationalists in 2015?

 

 

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Llanelli

Llanelli is the largest town in Carmarthenshire, situated in the industrial south-east of the county; the constituency also includes the towns of Burry Port and Kidwelly. Historically a safe Labour constituency at elections to Westminster, it has become an important Welsh Assembly seat for Plaid Cymru after their victories in 1999 and 2007. Now likely to be a prime Westminster target seat for PC, can the Welsh nationalists translate disaffection with Labour into a significantly larger vote share in 2015?

 

 

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Manchester Withington

This mainly residential seat to the south of Manchester city centre includes the areas of Didsbury, Withington and Chorlton. These desirable neighbourhoods have high numbers of students and young professionals. After first deserting the Tories during the Thatcher years, a shock win for the Lib Dems in 2005 and their re-election in 2010 has turned this once very safe Labour seat into marginal territory. John Leech may have voted against tuition fees, but with so many student voters living in the constituency can Labour capitalise on anti-Lib Dem sentiment and retake this seat in 2015?

 

 

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Montgomeryshire

Montgomeryshire is a rural constituency with an elderly population centred on Newtown. Lembit Öpik was a surprise loser on election night when the Tories’ Glyn Davies captured the seat with a 13.2% swing in 2010. Will the political weather ensure this seat remains blue – or can local councillor and social worker Jane Dodds recapture the seat for the Lib Dems?

 

 

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Morecambe and Lunesdale

This seat contains the rural northern parts of Lancashire that border Cumbria with wards such as Carnforth, and swings round to the west to the seaside resort of Morecambe. Not quite as glamorous as its near neighbour Blackpool, its two piers have both disappeared in recent years – one in a fire, the other in a storm. It switched to the Tories in 2010. As an ultra-marginal seat, the battle for Morecambe and Lunesdale promises to be fierce in 2015, with both the Conservatives and Labour needing to win seats such as this if they are to be returned to government.

 

 

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Norwich South

Norwich South takes in the majority of the city’s historical features including its Norman castle and cathedral. Labour support here has dwindled over recent elections, with the Liberal Democrats winning the seat by a small margin in 2010, defeating former Cabinet Minister Charles Clarke. However, the Lib Dems’ plummeting constituency poll ratings suggest this seat may become Labour’s once again.

 

 

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Ochil and South Perthshire

Rural hamlets like Auchterarder, Comrie and Crieff sparsely dot the mountainous northern region of this beautiful rural constituency, whose more populous parts lie in south-east Clackmannanshire, centred on Alloa and Alva. Although the seat includes the great rural hinterland of the old Perth division, the majority of its electors are drawn from the old Labour seat of Ochil. A key SNP target, the Scottish nationalists will find it hard to bag bigger fish if they can’t capture this seat in 2015.

 

 

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Redcar

A coastal constituency, Redcar includes the eponymous seaside resort. Sandwiched between Middlesbrough to the south and Hartlepool and Stockton to the north, most of the constituency is urban and heavily industrialised. The Lib Dems took the seat from Labour with their biggest swing of 2010 – an impressive 22%. But with the Lib Dems suffering in the polls and popular incumbent MP Ian Swales standing down, can local councillor Josh Mason do enough to prevent this seat being retaken by Labour?

 

 

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Rotherham

The old coal and steel town of Rotherham, now bearing the scars of the decline of both its major industries, has been represented by all three main parties but only Labour has won here since 1933 – and, since WWII, usually overwhelmingly. Sarah Champion held the seat for Labour at the 2012 by-election, caused by Denis MacShane’s resignation following an expenses scandal, but saw the party’s majority halved to 5,318. UKIP came second, almost quadrupling its vote share since 2010 making Rotherham one of its top target seats in the north. Leading the charge is the UKIP MEP, Jane Collins.

 

 

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Sherwood

Sherwood covers the central part of Nottinghamshire and contains the former mining communities of Hucknall, Ravenshead, Ollerton and Calverton. Previously held by Paddy Tipping, Labour’s comfortable reign ended when Tipping stood down after 18 years in 2010. The seat was won by Mark Spencer for the Conservatives with a majority of 214. Sherwood is now number five on Labour’s target list for 2015.

 

 

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Solihull

Solihull, on the south eastern fringes of Birmingham, comprises eight wards: Elmdon, Lyndon, Olton, St Alphege, Shirley East, Shirley South, Shirley West and Silhill. It is middle class, suburban, owner-occupied and white. The seat had been Conservative since its creation in 1945 but fell to the Lib Dems in a surprise victory in 2005 and again, with a tiny majority, in 2010. Lib Dem incumbent Lorely Burt will have a fight on her hands if she is to hold on to her seat against the resurgent Tories, led by journalist Julian Knight.

 

 

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Somerton and Frome

Somerton and Frome is one of the largest rural constituencies in England, covering almost 900 square miles. It borders Wiltshire to the east, Bath and North East Somerset to the north and Dorset to the south. With David Heath standing down the Lib Dem charge is being led by old hand David Rendel, the former MP for Newbury. The Lib Dems will be only too aware that despite four successive victories here, their grip on power remains very fragile, with the Tories now desperate to win this seat.

 

 

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St Austell and Newquay

The new seat of St Austell and Newquay stretches from the south east to the north coast of Cornwall and takes in a huge rural heartland in between the big touristic towns of St Austell and Newquay. Though held by the Lib Dems for many years now, this seat is a key target for the Conservatives.

 

 

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St Ives

The most south westerly constituency in the country stretches from Land’s End northwards to Godrevy Head, north of the seaside town from which it takes its name. The seat also includes the Isles of Scilly. But the largest town is Penzance, the commercial centre of West Cornwall. Labour support has stagnated for many years, but unless Andrew George benefits from some Labour tactical voting, this seat may well turn blue. A rising UKIP and Cornish nationalist vote makes the result even more difficult to predict.

 

 

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Stirling

Centred on the ancient Scottish capital of the same name, this seat also includes historic Bannockburn and Stirling Bridge, as well as the vast Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park. Until now a reasonably safe Labour seat at Westminster, it is a three-way marginal at Holyrood since the SNP leapfrogged Labour and the Conservatives to win the seat in 2007. With Anne McGuire standing down, Labour PPC Johanna Boyd faces a tough fight to prevent the SNP taking this seat in a Bannockburn-style rout.

 

 

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Stockton South

The congenial sibling of the Stockton North seat contains the town centre and also houses many commuters to Middlesbrough. With lower unemployment and a workforce less centred upon manual labour, it is little surprise that Stockton South has flirted with the Conservatives, albeit by narrow margins. Louise Baldock may well take this seat back for Labour.

 

 

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Stroud

Stroud lies to the south of Gloucester, between the two larger rural Gloucestershire constituencies of the Cotswolds and Forest of Dean. More industrialised than the neighbouring constituency of the Cotswolds, the Conservative hold has been much more tenuous in Stroud, a seat with a history of nonconformist political activity. A constituency with a history of wavering between Labour and the Tories, the former Labour MP for Stroud, David Drew, may well find himself returned to Westminster once again.

 

 

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Sutton and Cheam

The areas of Sutton and Cheam are on the south-west boundary of Greater London. Suburban, primarily residential areas, the latter is rather more affluent than its neighbour. Although a Lib Dem seat since 1997, Paul Scully is fighting hard to retake the constituency for the Tories. With Emily Brothers – who came out in December as the first transgender PPC selected by a major political party – representing Labour, and local ‘Keep St Helier Hospital’ campaigner Dave Ash making his challenge in the seat of a former health minister, Sutton and Cheam looks set to be a fascinating battleground.

 

 

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Thanet South

Thanet South sits in the north east corner of Kent. It includes the coastal resorts of Broadstairs and Ramsgate plus the port of Sandwich. The sitting MP, Laura Sandys, was dealt a body blow in 2011 when Pfizer announced it was to close its Sandwich plant with the loss of 6,000 jobs. UKIP suggested vocal pro-European Sandys’ decision to stand down in 2015 was influenced by the fear that she would lose her seat to the party. Faced with a challenge by its popular leader Nigel Farage, the local Conservative Association chose a UKIP defector, Craig Mackinlay, to replace her.

 

 

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Thurrock

Thurrock borders Greater London, covers 18 miles of the north bank of the Thames and includes the towns of Grays, Tilbury and Purfleet. An important port area, it is home to Tilbury docks and oil refineries and forms a major part of the Thames Gateway regeneration area. Traditionally a two-way contest between the Tories and Labour, this constituency has now become a three-way marginal, with UKIP polling well. Holding the seat with a tiny majority, the Tories face challenges from Ed Miliband’s former Spad, Polly Billington and UKIP MEP Tim Aker.

 

 

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Warrington South

Held by the Conservatives for just shy of a decade following its creation in 1983, Labour’s win here in 1992 was followed by three more at successive general elections before David Mowat triumphed for the Tories in 2010. There is some industry in the seat, mainly chemical and service industries, but it generally consists of quiet residential areas. A key 2015 battleground for both Labour and the Conservatives, the result here may say a lot about each of the parties’ prospects nationwide.

 

 

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Warwickshire North

North Warwickshire lies to the east of Birmingham and north of Coventry. It comprises a collection of post-industrial villages and the town of Bedworth. Historically it had a large coal-mining industry, but this has almost petered out. The district is relatively remote from the rest of Warwickshire, as the county is almost split in two by the West Midlands. With sitting MP Dan Byles standing down, can the Tories’ new candidate Craig Tracey do enough to prevent former government minister Mike O’Brien taking back the old seat he lost in 2010?

 

 

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Waveney

The most easterly seat in Britain, Waveney is situated in the north east corner of Suffolk. The constituency contains the declining coastal town of Lowestoft and the market towns of Beccles and Bungay. Currently held with a tiny majority by Peter Aldous, Labour’s Bob Blizzard will be battling hard to retake the seat he previously held for 13 years. But with UKIP’s successful showing in the 2013 local elections, could Simon Tobin produce an electoral upset of his own in 2015?

 

 

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Wells

The Somerset city of Wells – after which the constituency is named – is England’s smallest city, with a population of only 10,000. The constituency also lays claim to Glastonbury, and the burial site of King Arthur and Guinevere said to be in the grounds of the ruined Glastonbury Abbey. Tessa Munt ended the 30-year reign of the previous Conservative MP, David Heathcoat-Amory, in 2010. With a tiny majority of 800, can the Lib Dems do enough to prevent new Conservative candidate James Heappey from turning the seat blue again?

 

 

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